Friday, 8 February 2013

GDP Estimates

According to the CSO’s findings, India’s economic growth rate is likely to slip to a decade’s low of five per cent in 2012-13, pulled down by poor performance of manufacturing, agriculture and services sectors. 

Releasing the first official estimate of growth for the current financial year, the CSO said growth would decline from 6.2 % in 2011-12 to 5%, much lower than the projections of the Reserve Bank of India and other agencies.

The previous low at 4% was recorded in 2002-03. Since then the Indian economy has been expanding at over 6%, the highest rate being 9.6 % in 2006-07.

The CSO’s advance estimate has lowered the growth in agriculture and allied activities to 1.8 % in 2012-13, compared to 3.6 % 2011-12.

 Manufacturing growth is also expected to drop to 1.9 % in this fiscal, from 2.7 % last year.

While the Reserve Bank has projected a growth rate of 5.5 % for the current financial year, the International Monetary Fund has pegged it at 5.4%.

The Finance Ministry had earlier reduced the growth projection for the current fiscal to 5.7-5.9 % from the original estimate of 7.6 %.

On the positive side, mining and quarrying is likely be slightly better at 0.4 per cent, compared to contraction of growth of 0.6 per cent a year ago. Growth in construction is also likely to be 5.9 per cent in 2012-13, against 5.6 per cent last year.

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