GDP Estimates

According to the CSO’s findings, India’s economic growth rate is likely to slip to a decade’s low of five per cent in 2012-13, pulled down by poor performance of manufacturing, agriculture and services sectors. 

Releasing the first official estimate of growth for the current financial year, the CSO said growth would decline from 6.2 % in 2011-12 to 5%, much lower than the projections of the Reserve Bank of India and other agencies.

The previous low at 4% was recorded in 2002-03. Since then the Indian economy has been expanding at over 6%, the highest rate being 9.6 % in 2006-07.

The CSO’s advance estimate has lowered the growth in agriculture and allied activities to 1.8 % in 2012-13, compared to 3.6 % 2011-12.

 Manufacturing growth is also expected to drop to 1.9 % in this fiscal, from 2.7 % last year.

While the Reserve Bank has projected a growth rate of 5.5 % for the current financial year, the International Monetary Fund has pegged it at 5.4%.

The Finance Ministry had earlier reduced the growth projection for the current fiscal to 5.7-5.9 % from the original estimate of 7.6 %.

On the positive side, mining and quarrying is likely be slightly better at 0.4 per cent, compared to contraction of growth of 0.6 per cent a year ago. Growth in construction is also likely to be 5.9 per cent in 2012-13, against 5.6 per cent last year.

Highlights of 2012-13 Budget Highlights

Finance Minister Mr. Pranab Mukherjee on March 16, 2012 presented the Union Budget 2012-13 in the Parliament.

● Income tax exemption limit raised to Rs.2 lakh to provide relief of Rs.2,000 for all assesses; 20 per cent tax on income over Rs.10 lakh, up from Rs.8 lakh.
● Deduction of up to Rs.10,000 from interest from savings bank accounts.
● Defence to get Rs.1.93 lakh crore during 2012-13.
● Service tax rate raised from 10 per cent to 12 per cent to bring in Rs.18,660 crore.
● Number of proactive steps taken on black money (stashed away abroad); information has started flowing in, prosecution to be initiated; White Paper in current session.
● No change in corporate taxes but measures to enable them better access funds.
● Withholding tax on external commercial borrowings reduced from 20 per cent to five per cent for power, airlines, roads, bridges, affordable houses and fertilizer sectors.
● National Skill Development Fund allocated Rs.1,000 crore.
● Four thousand residential quarters to be constructed for paramilitary forces with an allocation of Rs.1,185 crore.
● National Population Register to be completed in two years.
● Excise duty raised from 10 to 12 per cent.
● Cinema industry exempted from service tax.
● Branded silver jewellery fully exempt from excise duty.
● Customs duty on warning systems/track upgrade equipment for railways reduced from 10 per cent to 7.5 per cent.
● Import duty on equipment for iron ore mining reduced from 7.5 to 2.5 per cent.
● Allocation of Rs.200 crore for research on climate change.
● Irrigation and water resource company to be operationalised.
● National mission on food processing to be started in cooperation with state governments.
● Integrated Child Development Scheme to be strengthened and restructured with allocation of Rs.15,850 crore.
● Allocation of Rs.14,000 crore for rural water supply and sanitation.
● Infusion of Rs.15,888 crore in public sector banks, regional rural banks and NABARD in 2012-13.
● Infrastructure will require Rs.50 lakh crore in 12th Plan, half of this from the private sector.
● Completion of highway projects 44 per cent higher than in previous fiscal.
● External commercial borrowing of up to $1 billion permitted for airline sector.
● External commercial borrowings permitted to low-cost housing sector.
● From 2012-13, full subsidies for providing food security; in other sectors to the extent the economy can bear this.
● Hope to raise Rs.30,000 crore from disinvestments.
● New equity savings scheme to provide for income tax deduction
of 50 per cent for those who invest Rs.50,000 in equity and whose annual income is less than Rs.10 lakh.
● Corporate market reforms to be initiated.

● Bills on micro-finance institutions, national land bank and public debt management among those to be introduced in 2012-13.

● Addressing malnutrition, black money and corruption in public life among five priorities in year ahead.
● India's inflation structural, driven largely by agricultural constraints.
● Current account deficit 3.6 per cent in 2011-12; this put pressure on exchange rate.
● Growth in 2012-13 estimated at 7.6 per cent; expect inflation to be lower.
● Better monitoring of expenditure on government schemes.
● Fiscal 2011-12 year of recovery interrupted; reality turned out to be different.
● GDP growth in 2011-12 estimated at 6.9 per cent; had to battle double digit inflation for two years.
● Good news: agriculture and services continued to perform well; economy is now turning around; recovery in core sectors.